America is split in political party affiliation heading into the 2024 presidential election, seeing one of the most evenly split electorates in the past two decades, resurfaced research reveals.
A Pew Research Center analysis examined voter identification across different ages, races, religions and education levels, comparing how voters identified in 1996 to new data from 2023.
Fifty-one percent of Americans said they identified with the Republican Party in 1994, while 47% identified as Democrats. The tables turned over the years, with 5% more of American voters identifying as Democrats over Republicans in 2020. However, the Pew results from 2023 reveal a significant shift in party affiliation this cycle, reporting that 49% of voters identify as Democrat or leaning Democrat, while 48% identify as Republican or leaning Republican.
Additionally, about 33% of respondents said they identify as being conservative or moderate in 2023, while the other side of the aisle only sees 23% identifying as liberal Democrats or leaning liberal.
The poll found that while Democrats remain the party of choice for most Hispanic, Black and Asian voters, party support among non-Hispanic White Democratic voters has dropped 21 percentage points since 1996, falling from 77% to 56% in 2023.
Recent polls have found that despite their advantage, Democratic support among minority voters is shrinking. A recent Gallup poll found that 19% of Black adults said they identify as lean Republican or Republican, while 66% identify as Democrat or lean Democrat, the “smallest Gallup has recorded in its polling, dating back to 1999.”
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Among different age groups, Democrats maintain their advantage among young voters, while the majority of older individuals are Republican affiliated.
Republicans have gained ground among Hispanic voters in recent years, tripling affiliation with their base in the demographic over the past two decades from 3% to 9%.
Rural voters also appear to be shifting towards the GOP, with the new poll showing the party holds a 25-point advantage over Democrats, 60% to 35%, after the parties were evenly split among voters in 2008.
President Biden and former President Donald Trump are expected to compete in a presidential election rematch in November. While Biden won the 2020 election against Trump, Pew’s analysis reveals a potential shift in the political landscape that could be echoed on the ballot this fall.
Pew Research Center conducted the surveys via telephone for the results dating 1994 to 2018, and via online surveys from 2019 to 2023 among registered voters.
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