Could the SARB sink Ramaphosa?

With the stars aligned for President Cyril Ramaphosa to survive as ANC president at the party’s elective conference next month, those who divine his political demise now say it is written in the foreign exchange control regime.

The debate in political circles has increasingly turned to what the implications will be for the president if, in the new year, the South African Reserve Bank found there were forex control violations at his Phala Phala game farm and imposed a sanction. 

It is a fair question and naturally extends to whether an adverse finding would trigger the ANC’s step-aside rule. If so, having championed the measure and staked his presidency on an anti-corruption drive, he will have to take leave of absence as leader of the party. 

It then becomes likely history will repeat itself and, like his predecessors, he will be recalled as president. Both Jacob Zuma in 2018 and Thabo Mbeki 10 years earlier were forced to resign on orders of the party.